Iran's Foreign Policy Research Proposal Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Iran's Foreign Policy - Research Proposal Example The election of President George Bush in 2000 dampened these hopes as he left moderate Iranians puzzled by his demonizing of Iran and the inclusion of the country in the 'axis of evil' along with North Korea (Katz, 2005, p.59). This set the stage for the election of the conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an Islamic nationalist that is suspicious of the US and capitalist countries, and has increased the tensions between the countries and elevated the risk of direct confrontation (Pirouz & Reed, 2005). The possibility that Iran may have a nuclear weapons program has made them a threat to the national security of the US. Iran poses a significant threat to the US national security from Islamic extremists that have considerable influence on the Iranian government. This has placed the advocates of a 'Holy War' against the United States in a position to disrupt trade or Iran's vital supply of petroleum. Regional disputes could spill over into Iran and involve a nation that may have nuclear capability. The current administration has professed the belief that Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon or the necessary resources to build one sometime in the near future (Sagan, 2006). If the US administration believes that Iran poses a significant economic or military threat there is a risk of the US taking preemptive action to prevent Iran from destabilizing the region or the world economy. The last 60 years have seen considerable swings in our relations with Iran. In 1951 Iranian Premier Ali Razmara, who was open to trade and favorable relations with the West, was assassinated and replaced by Mohammad Mossadeq. Mossadeq was a hardliner that planned to nationalize the country's oil reserves and limit the power of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a pro-western Shah (Chronology US-Iran relations, 2005). In 1953 a joint operation between the CIA and British intelligence overthrew the Mossadeq regime in a military coup that put the Shah into power (Chronology US-Iran relations, 2005). This began a period of favorable relations with Iran that lasted until the Shah's removal in the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The Iranian Revolution was accompanied by the taking of the American embassy and the kidnapping of its occupants in Tehran. This resulted in the Carter administration implementing sanctions against Iran and an embargo on Iranian oil. In 1995, Clinton banned all trade with Iran. These tough sanctions were temporarily eased as companies were allowed to sell food and medical supplies in 1999 (Chronology US-Iran relations, 2005). The current US policy has labeled Iran a terrorist nation and in 2002 Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stated that Iran was responsible for, " inspiring and financing a culture of political murder and suicide bombing" (as cited in Chronology US-Iran relations, 2005). This policy has continued with tougher sanctions and a policy of non-negotiations. The Bush administration has continued to escalate the rhetoric against Iran and Iran has responded by taking provocative military actions against the US and British interests in the region. This has led to the curren t policy of economically and politically isolating Iran in an effort to get them to curb their nuclear ambitions (Katzman, 2007, p.2). Faced with a hostile nation that may possess a nuclear weapon in the near future highlights the importance of having an effective policy in regards to

Sport Psychology Essay Example for Free

Sport Psychology Essay tExercise is an accessible method of fulfilling a persons physical goals which they have for their own body. Humans are capable of engaging in a variety of exercises including running, playing a game of volleyball, or even surfing. In spite of the many physical accomplishments which humans can gain from physical exercise, people are also capable of encountering many psychological benefits from doing so. Studies have shown that exercising release certain chemicals in our brain that results in a good feeling. For instance, a late The beauty behind physical exercise is not only due to physical benefits which humans receive due to it, but also from the positive psychological energy given to humans that helps motivate us to continue the journey of life. arousal regulation, imagery, self confidence, attention, or concentration , goal setting memory write a 4-5 page paper. the assignment thing said you will write an article for a sports magazine on a topic from the psychological skills training section of the book that you find interesting. ( choices are: arousal regulation, imagery, self confidence, goal setting attention or concentration ) The format of your aticle should be similar to those in the actual newsletter or magazine. Be creative: include graphics and diagrams, get the readers attention with quotes and create a catchy title. write in language that is accessible to individuals who have never taken a sport psychology class. Be sure to include good content and ideas for how this information can be applied to specific situations ( using examples in a good idea ). Prayer-= Ones performance can soar like an eagle once you defeat the psychological struggles flooding ones mind. Anxiety is the main proponent to affecting any human being from giving their utmost potential in a sport. Anxiety is derived from due to self-insecurities. There are various approaches which you can make when confronting ones psychological struggles hindering ones performance, through the use of: somatic anxiety reduction,cognitive anxiety reduction, and multimodal anxiety reduction packages. An insincere and evil friend is more to be feared than a wild beast; a wild beast may wound your body, but an evil friend will wound your mind (Buddha). A wild beast in a surfing contest can be a shark swimming near the surface of the waves, while an evil friend in this case can be the physical symptoms which one experiences when feeling the anxiety of competing, thats making it difficult to keep your balance on the surfboard. One method which any human can use in order to control these physical symptoms that can possibly hinder ones performance is through the use of somatic anxiety reduction techniques. This technique focuses on progressive relaxation, learning how to control ones breathing, as well as biofeedback. Progressive relaxation involves becoming familiar with the tension experienced in ones muscles and then releasing all of it. This method is extremely beneficial to any human since it helps one to become conscious of the feeling experienced in the muscles when one is under a stressful situation. By familiarizing oneself with this particular strain in the muscles, one is capable of being able to preventing them from interfering with ones performance. Controlling ones breathing is also vital in order to present ones utmost performance. When humans experiences stress and anxiety in any particular situation, one can often experience a shortness, irregularity, as well as shallowness of breath. In contrast, when one is under a peaceful state of mind, ones breathing is steady and deep. Biofeedback is also an effective method used in order reduce somatic anxiety. This particular technique involves learning to control ones physiological and unconscious responses in the body through the process of receiving physiological responses that arent normally available to a person. Another technique which athletes as well as any other human can use in order to reduce anxiety involves some cognitive exercises. One exercise commonly use is meditation which involves an inwardly oriented personal exercise that involves quieting and concentration of the mind that can lead to a great deal of reduction of muscle tension. Another technique which individuals can use is autogenic training which centers a human to produce warmth and heaviness, that can eventually leads to a state of relaxation. Another technique that can be applied to ones life in order to help one to regulate arousal during performance is called multimodal anxiety reduction packages. A well known form of this anxiety reducing technique is called stress management training. SMT consists of applying relaxation and cognitive components to ones form of coping responses to emotional arousal that may arise within. Another example of a multidomal anxiety reduction that may fortify ones way of coping with stress is through stress inoculation training. This particular training involves exposing a human to stressful components, including mental images, and self-statements, that fortifies a humans resistance to stress. Therefore, as mentioned before, arousal regulation is a particular coping mechanism which athletes can greatly benefit them in order to excel in their physical and mental performance when playing a sport. Studies have shown that these anxiety reducing techniques greatly benefit individuals while working under pressure. Somatic anxiety reduction consists of becoming aware of ones physical symptoms that may arise while under stress, and learning how to cope with them when they arise during performance. Cognitive anxiety reduction techniques is also vital by helping one to gain more control of the anxious thoughts that emerge in ones conscious, that can enable one to give ones outstanding performance. The last particular anxiety exercise that was mentioned is the multimodal anxiety reduction packages, which is essential for all humans to build effective and positive coping mechanisms in the midst of a stressful situation. These three anxiety reducing techniques can be seen as vital methods which psychologists have created in order to help any human being to learn how to control ones body, physical, and emotional responses to stressful situations that can be presented during performance during any particular moment in ones life. Therefore, if athletes gain more control over their emotions, this what am i sad about: after comment; made me feel like im not good enough. and that im not a cool of enough girl. i want to take shit serious. i feel bad about that.

Synthesis and Anticancer Activities of 5-halogeno Pyrimidine

Synthesis and Anticancer Activities of 5-halogeno Pyrimidine SOLID STATE MICROWAVE-ASSISTED SYNTHESIS AND ANTICANCER ACTIVITIES OF N-DERIVATIVES OF 5-HALOGENO SUBSTITUTED PYRIMIDINE 2, 4 DIONE BY TAHIRA SAGHIR ABSTRACT This study will report the synthesis of some substituted 5-halogenated pyrimidine 2,4dione by conventional and solid state microwave assisted methods. Derivitization of 5-halogenated pyrimidine,2,4 dione give predominately N1and N3-subsituted compounds where R may be the alkyl ,aryl, allyl, acyl, cyclohexenyleetc. 5-halogenated pyrimidine 2,4 dione derivatives represent the new group of anticancer and antibacterial agents with potential for development of medicinal application. The application of solid state microwaves to organic synthesis is opening up new opportunities for the synthetic chemist by providing new routes. High consumption of chemicals for prolonged time has adverse effecton environment. This is the key reason to adopt solvent free condition i.e. eco-friendly microwave assisted solid state synthetic routes. Introduction Microwave irradiation has emerged as powerful tool for organic synthesis. In concern with a rapidly expanding applications base, microwave synthesis can be effectively applied to any type of chemistry resulting in faster reaction time from minutes to seconds and improved product yield. The environmental protection has become a global concern and chemical industry is increasingly searching the ways of developing and applying more efficiently and environmentally begins strategies for future sustainable growth. An important part of present effort towards eco friendly synthesis is aimed at reduction of use of solvents as in classical procedures. For this purpose in organic synthesis solid support has made a land mark as the reaction can be performed in dry media or solvent free conditions. Further usage of solid support in conjunction with microwave leads to high yield remarkable reaction rate enhancement high catalytic activity with optimum utilization of energy. The solvent less approach provide an opportunity to conduct selective organic functional group transformation more efficiently and also allows the work to conductin open vessel thus avoiding the risk of high pressure development. 5-halogenated pyrimidine 2,4dione is used as an anticancer agent. A major difference between cancer cells and normal cells are that the cancer cells divide much more rapidly. Rapidly dividing cells require a constant new supply of DNA is the nucleoside,deoxythimidine,which is synthesized in the cell by methylation of uridine. Flouro uracil is administrated to a cancer patient as part of chemotherapy. The body convert it in to flourouridinegreatly decreasing DNA synthesis. A number of pyrimidine bases possess anti viral and anti cancer activities. In addition N1and N3-di substituted 5 halogenated pyrimidine2,4dione also exhibit anticancer , antibacterial and anti fungalactivities. Literature Review Zeng and his coworkersstudied on activity and structure of co-relation which are useful to drug discovery. By modifying the nature and position of substituent or pyrimidine and theirderivatives, a change in biological activity is observed. The synthesis of organic compound and pharmacological evaluation of these compound have been described by them, they have synthesized large number of compound using different reaction condition i.e. liquid phase reaction and solid phase1. Stefeny,PaulaM and their coworkers applied microwave assisted organic synthesis in many formats ranging from traditional solution phase to solvent free reactions2. Verma and Rajender Singh made solvent free synthesis of heterocyclic compounds. They reported that microwave enhanced solvent free synthetic approach has many advantages. These advantages aresimplicity,manipulative ease of the operation and conservation of solvent .A variety of solid state reactions are described that occur rapidly at ambient pressure under solventless conditions and provide ready access to intermediates such as enamines and tosyloxyketones which can be transformed in situ to biologically significant heterocyclic compounds such as isoflav-3-enes, flavones, quinolones, 2-aroylbenzo[b]furans and thiazoles in one-pot operation. Multicomponent reactions under these solvent-free conditions can be adapted for high speed parallel synthesis and are exemplified by assembly of dihydropyrimidine-2(1H)-ones (Biginelli reaction) and imidazo[1,2-a]annulated pyridines, pyrazines and pyrimidines (Ugi reaction) which may have potential in building a library of such compounds3. Verma et al. 2009 found that microwave enhanced solvent free synthatic approach has the features: simplicity manipulative ease of the operation and conservation of solvents as the main advantage. This eco friendly approach is found as an application in facile organic functional group transformation is applied to rapid assembly of hetrocyclic compounds4. Filler and Roberts postulated the importance of fluore containing compounds synthesis in bio and medicinal chemistry e.g. amino acid,anti canceragents,nucleosides, centeral nervous system agents and anesthetic agents5. Sugiyama,H,etal.explained 5 iodo uracil containing DNA-zalpha complex showed photo reactivity. For the high tendency binding it was observed that NH2 terminusZ-alpha and double strained RNA was very profound respectively. In the absence the incidence of Z-alpha,to relate the structure of Z-DNA induced by Zalpha,were perceived in comparison to that with high salt concentration,than the hydroxylated product was meritoriously produced in it specified by Z-alpha.6 Zhan,etal. have made the solvent and catalyst-free synthesis of dihydropyrimidione in one pot conditions under focused microwave irradiation in 2008.7 Andre Loupy has defined microwave chemistry as â€Å"the science of applying microwave irradiation to chemical reaction’’8.In literature we found that initiallyRichard Gedye and coworkers have described the use of microwave irradiation for organic synthesis.After Richard then number of other scientist in the field of organic chemistry reported in detail about various organic reactions which were performed by using this technology. Various reactions in literatureinclude Alkylation,Esterification,Sponification,Condensation ,Oxidation.Reduction.Cycloaddition,Rearrangments,N-acylations,and Olefination.9 Kidwai and Rastogi reported an eco friendly approach for the synthesis of 2 substituted-4-6-diarylpyrimidines using inorganic solid supports for its catalytic roleas well as energy transfer medium is described.The methodology eliminates the usage of solvents during reaction.Microwave assisted basic alumina catalysed reaction is the best as a catalysis as well as reaction time and yield.10 Gedye and Langahave talked about specific microwave effects.11 Loupy and coworkershave published a number of rewiews on solvent-free reactions.12 Kamal Alannan have reported that substituted uracils especially at 5-position play a key role in many metabolic processes. Uracil reacts with halogens such as,chlorine,Bromine. Iodineflorine to give haogen substituted compounds. From the literature it was found that the halogen substituted uracils are important anticancer drugs.13 Zhang and zhou reported the major advantage of solvent-free, for the green synthesis derivatives of heterocyclic compounds. The major advantages of this method are simple experimental and work-up procedures, solvent-free reaction conditions, small amount of catalyst and short reaction time, high yield, and utilization of an inexpensive and reusable catalyst14 Zhao and co-workers reported the advances in the research of pyrimidine derivatives as antitumor drug according to their action on targets.15 Chowdhury and shanker describe the recent development in solvent-free multi component reactions which was the perfect synergy for eco-compatible organic synthesis. The eco-friendly solvent free approach opens up numerous possibilities for conducting rapid organic sunthesis.16 Khosrou and Ali reported the cytotoxicity of synthesized dinitrophenyl derivatives of 5-fluorouracil under hypotoxic conditions on HT-29 cell line under both aerobic and hypotoxic conditions.17 Objectives Solid state microwaves assisted organic synthesis have an impact on drug discovery. The discovery of compounds with improved biological properties can be made more efficient by using new techniques. The objectives of the present research will be: Synthesis of new bio active compounds. Method development for synthesis of new bioactive compounds. Characterization of all synthesized compounds. Pharmacological evaluation. Plan of work Synthesis of 5 -halogen substituted pyrimidine 2,4 dione. Synthesis of N-derivatives of 5-halogeno substituted pyrmindine-2,4-dione. Structure elucidation will be carried out by a.UV/VIS spectroscopy b.FTIRspectroscopy c.NMR d.Mass spectrometry 4.Pharmacological evaluation(anticanceractivities)of synthesized compounds. METHODOLOGY Microwave- assisted synthesis has been applied in many formats ranging from traditional solution phase to solid phase and solvent free reactions. By using dry conditions, the hazards of volatile organic solvents in microwave oven can be eliminated. The solid state synthesis of N-derivatives of 5-halogen substituted of pyrimidine 2,4 dione is of great interest in present research. PLACE OF WORK 1. Lahore College For Women University, Lahore. 2.University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences Lahore. . References 1.Zeng ,J .pharma, Res.16, 304-309, 1999. 2.Stafani, H.A; Gatti, P.M, Synth.commun.30, 2165-2173,2000. 3.Varma, R.S., JournalofHetrocycle.Chem.36, 1565-1571, 1999. 4.Verma, R. S., Journal of Heterocyclic Chemistry, 36(6), 1565 – 1571, 2009. 5.Filler,ACS.Symp.Ser,60, 616,3793,2000. 6.Oyoshi, T.; Sugiyama, H.Journal of Nucleic Acids Research, (1), 123-4, 2001. 7. Zhan, H.W;Wang, J. X. Journal ofChin.Chem,Lett. 19,1183-1185,2008. 8. Loupy, Micro wave in Organic synthesis, Willey-VCH, Weinhein, 2006. 9. Gedye, N; Smith F.E,Can J. Chem. 66,17, 1887. 10. Kidwai, S.Rastogi, Bul and KoreanChen. Soc., 24, 11- 1575, 2003. 11. Lang,F. org. synth., 4,373-386, 1997. 12. Loupy, A.Synthesis1998. 13. Kamal,A; Venka, P, J.Chem, soc., Daton Trans, 3381-339,2002. 14. Zhang, Y; Zhou, Z, Organic chemistry international, 1, 194784-5, 2012 15. Zhao, P; You W, Acta pharmacentica sinica, 47(5):580-7, 2012 16. Choudhury, S; Shankar, M, RSC Adv.2, 4547-4592, 2012 17. Khosrou, Ali , ISI journal of Bio Chemistry and molecular Biology.27/59, 176/290, 2013

Willy Russells Educating Rita :: Educating Rita Autobiography Social Class Essays

Willy Russell's Educating Rita Educating Rita was a play, which was written by Willy Russell. The book is a semi autobiographical story about a woman who has achieved nothing in her life and wants to get an education before it is too late. She is being forced to have a baby by her husband Denny and regrets not getting any qualifications. With a lack of learning she had only hairdressing to turn to. She started to feel like she was just another person in a crowd, nobody special at home so she starts a literature course at the Open University. Where she is given Frank as a tutor. Frank teaches her literature. She is an outcast to begin but it doesn’t take long before she becomes a stereotypical student sitting on the lawn. Frank is a middle-aged man, divorced but not single. His girlfriend Julia who we find cheating on him. As an English Lecturer and former poet, he understands the deeper meaning behind literature, but he can’t remember it half the time because of his little drinking problem. The character of Rita was based on the writer’s own life and experiences. They both grew up outside Liverpool with a poor education and a lack of qualifications. They both set off to change their lives. Rita became a student while Willy Russell lived his dream of being a writer. In act 1 Rita is introduced. She is shown to be loud and outwardly confident. An example is her use of inappropriate, crude language. When she sees a piece of artwork hanging on Frank’s office wall she says â€Å"look at those tits†. This quote expresses her attitude and gives you the impression she is loud and always speaks her mind. Her approach to Frank’s sophisticated reality is crude and shocking. â€Å"That’s ‘S’ for Susan. Its not me real name. I’ve changed it to Rita though† This is the funny side of Rita. She is made out to be entertaining and funny to make the audience laugh. When misunderstanding Frank’s comments her words are twisted into an inappropriate language. This shows her lack of education and her completely different approach to literature, her experiences are only reading pulp fiction books.. This lack in education causes her social status around school to be very low. She wants to be like the other students and knows it will take a lot of work to get there. The audience sees that she is aware of her academic limitations and knows the change will have to come from within â€Å"†¦ they come to the hairdressers cos they wanna be changed, but if you want to change y’

Antisocial Personality Disorder

Antisocial Personality Disorder Guadalupe Guizar Reyes HACC South West February 1, 2012 Antisocial Personality Disorder Often most people don’t understand the real issue behind Antisocial Personality Disorder and has been made clear that previous studies show that most personality disorders if not all begin by displaying symptoms during early childhood. Although very little is done about ASPD, whether it being due to lack of knowledge or not wanting to admit failure of flaw in your family, this article while far from perfect does a well job in declaring all the important aspects in the disorder.The website itself is very organized and highly informative, presenting most frequently asked questions and answering them in terms that any person with any type of educated level can comprehend. What causes antisocial personality disorder? How is it treated? What happens if it gets untreated? Questions that any person who is looking into this particular disorder whether it be for resea rch of relevant to you or someone you know in which you want to seek help for will find most constructive.The website is not only informative but also beneficial to someone who is looking for treatment, possessing a section in which you can seek for help near you. It contains many tools that are easily accessible, useful to those in search for a specific disorder. They include a section called â€Å"Patient Discussions† where previous patients may comment on a question for instants, what treatment has been effective for your antisocial personality disorder? While not a personal question it can be quite discouraging for those who have yet to find an effective way to deal or cope with their disorder may lose interest or hope in receiving treatment. To date†¦ nothing has even remotely changed about my antisocial personality disorder and have been in and out of mental institutions most of my life. † (author last name, date, page number) The content on the page is easy on the eyes, black text on a black background, making it readable to keep visitors from leaving the site while making the website look polished and professional. The negative input to the content is that although readable, every section is in the same style format, color making it difficult to istinguish one section from another. The website contains many links to other information on different types of disorders containing their symptoms, treatment, causes and other informative data all at the reach of one website making it counterproductive. The website contains features on how to distinguish one disorder from another and how from afar you can characterize the disorder, which is quite useful to those who may think a loved one maybe in need of treatment but are unsure of how to go about it.Despite the lack of space on the website it makes up with different alternatives on how the disorder can be treated, therapy for instants â€Å"For example, teenagers who receive therapy, helps them change the thinking that leads to their maladaptive behavior (cognitive behavioral therapy) has been found to significantly decrease the incidence of repeat antisocial behaviors. † The website contains good factors, it’s easy to navigate and locate particular sections you’re most interested in and everything located under one website.If by chance that there is something distinct you are searching for and cant seem to find located at the top left hand corner is a search section where it’ll lead you different website with similar traits. The website is good for all who are interested in ASPD or any specific medical condition whether it is for personal knowledge or seeking guidance and help. It will give you a clear understanding of these medical conditions and awareness. http://www. medicinenet. com/antisocial_personality_disorder/article. htm

An Estimation of Systematic Risk Essay Example

An Estimation of Systematic Risk Essay Example An Estimation of Systematic Risk Essay An Estimation of Systematic Risk Essay An Estimation of Systematic Risk This is a financial report on the estimation of risk for Walt Disney CO. (DS) and Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE). This report is done on the basis of the Normality Assumption suggesting that there is a constant variance and that the two variables tested are related there error terms = O. There is also the assumption that the distribution of error term is normal between both variables. Contents Statement of Hypothesis 2 Specification of the Mathematical Model of the Theory 3 Specification of the Statistical or Economic Model 5 Obtaining Data 6 Estimation of the Parameters of the Econometric Model 7 Hypothesis Testing 8 Forecasting, Prediction and Advice 1 1 Hypothesis: The expectation of each security is that its systematic risk will tend to mirror the market more closely and take certain values closer to 1 then its stated beta. I expect Walt Disney (DS) to take up a beta less than its stated value of 1. 2, and arbitrarily be 1. 15, . 05 less, and I expect Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE) to take up a beta greater than its stated value of . 82, and arbitrarily be . 87, . 05 greater. My hypothesized numbers are closer to 1 to represent the basis of my hypothesis that he true is closer to 1 . Im suggesting this theory because securities want to appear more attractive to investors and not mirror the market too closely. Securities will exaggerate their betas in order to appear more dispersed from the market. It is important for investors to have the most accurate data possible as to make the proper assumptions about their investments. This will become better represented in the return analysis and CAPM models of each stock supported by the benchmark of the S 500. A formula representation of the hypothesis should look like: HO: P2 1. 15 (DS) HI: *1. 15 (DS) HO: = . 87 (ETE) HI: . 87 (ETE) The data from these SRF will suggest that the stated values of DIS and ETE beta will be closer than they are represented on common business sites such as Yahoo Finance and MSN Money. It will be apparent Walt Disney and Energy Transfer Equity should still be highly considered as potential options in portfolios. With a more accurate measure of each stocks it will provide the investor with better information to assess the amount of risk the investor is willing to take on based off the returns of each security. Specification of the Mathematical Model of the Theory Independent Variable, X = S 500 Dependent variables, Y, Yl = DS, Y2 = ETE Using the two-variable linear regression model we can calculate the SRF and draw inferences about our PRF. The market or SP 500 will have a benchmark of 1 as that is the stated basis for testing the f the market. Yi will be the daily returns of the securities over the last five years dating from March 25th, 2008 to March 25th, 2013. These five years will be the basis for all data collection. A mathematical It is estimated from the SRF A mathematical representation of the SRF for DIS and ETE is as follows: 9i = DAI + The mathematical model for the SRF of the data states that the parameters are DAI which is the risk free rate or rf, and OA2 which is the slope or of the security. The y- intercept, or DAI will be represented as O because its already factored into our expected return (ER) of the securities and subtracted from it. Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model or CAPM we can further discuss the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. A graphical representation of the CAPM is as follows: ERi is known as the expected return of the securities, and is known as the systematic risk or the return of the market. The relationship between the dependent and independent variables in our hypothesis is a positive one because the assumption as stated in the hypothesis is that the betas of DIS and ETE are positive values, so regardless of actual value, they move in a positive manner with the market. DAI is assumed to be O in this graphical representation as stated prior as it is subtracted from our expected returns of each security. A mathematical representation of the CAPM model is as follows: (ERi rf) = (ERm rf) ERm is the expected return of the market, calculated by averaging the yield of the S 500 for the last five years. The risk-free rate is estimated from the five year average return of 3-month Treasury bills. Specification of the Statistical or Economic Model A mathematical representation of the error term is as follows: Ui = Yi E (y/xi) In this equation, Ui is known as the error term of a given variable, in our case the minus the mean return of the given security, E (y/xi). The error term in this hypothesis represents the variation of returns in our securities that cannot be explained by the market. In other words, its our inability to model all the movements f the dependent variable. There are other variables other than the SP 500 that effect the return of DIS and ETE. Geographical, political, and other economic factors all affect the return of a security in some way. Increasing the sample size of our SRF further eliminates the error term, but its impossible to completely eliminate the error term due to the immeasurable connectivity of all variables. Obtaining Data Data is necessary in order to help explain the basis of our hypothesis. It is essential that the collection of data be done in the most intentional and accurate way according to your hypothesis. Data for testing was obtained through Yahoo Finance. Data for Walt Disney Inc. , Energy Transfer Equity LLP, and the S 500 was collected from a five year daily period from March 25th, 2008, to March 25th, 2013. Data selection was intentionally selected to avoid the majority of the great recession and the years before. To increase the accuracy and reduce the error term of our returns, daily returns were preferred over weekly or monthly. Data collected was the % changes in each the price of each variable. With this data a simple mathematical equation was performed to adjust the % changes into returns. The mathematical equation is as follows: Y2 represents the % change in a securities price the day after Yl . Using SAS Web Editor to run tests on the data collected further interpretations of the two parameters, Pl and P2 can be concluded. The SAS coding for each plot is as proc plot; plot DIS*SP500; plot ETE*SP500; proc reg; model ETE=SP500; model DIS=SP500; See attached PDF for visual results of SAS tests. Interpretation of Parameters The parameter estimates for the SAS tests are as follows: For ETE, using a regression analysis, SAS concluded that Pl = . 00052687 which is ssumed to be O. SAS estimated the beta as OA2 = . 80867 which is about . 01 lower than what Yahoo Finance and MSN Money had calculated it to be, which was . 82. The standard error for ETE, SE (OA2) = . 02931. r2 was found for our ETE return model to be . 773. The value of r2 of . 3773 means that about 37. 73% of the variation in the daily return of ETE is explained by the markets daily return. For DS, using a regression analysis, SAS concluded that Pl = . 00041319 which, again, is assumed to be O. The SAS calculated the beta for DIS as OA2 = 1. 09786 which was about . 1 lower han what Yahoo Finance and MSN Money had calculated it to be, which was 1. 2. The standard error for DS, SE (OA2) = . 02036. r2 was found for our DIS return model as . 6983. The value of r2 of . 6983 means that about 69. 3% of the variation in the daily return of DIS is explained by the markets daily return. The intercept for each regression analysis is interpreted as O because the risk-free rate is already factored into the return of the securities. Using the estimates from the parameters of the regression analysis one can test the statistical significance of their hypothesis. Running a test of significance test will show the range in which the true beta is found. Running a t-test one will be able to see if the stated betas of DIS and ETE are statistically significant than the actual beta. The hypothesized betas for the securities are as follows: HO: P2 = 1. 15 (DS) The estimated betas for the securities are as follows: = 1 . 09786 (DS) = . 80867 (ETE) The estimated standard errors of each security are as follows: SE (OA2) = . 02036 (DS) SE (QQ) = . 02931 (ETE) Region of Acceptance Testing The formula for calculating the region of acceptance for our HO is as follows: Pr [P2 an SE (OA2) + tan SE (OA2)] = 1 -a DS: 2=1. 15 tan = 1. 962 SE (OA2) = . 02036 pr [1. 11 ETE: = . 87 SE (OA2) = . 02931 pr [ . 812 . 28] = 95% level of significance These equations show the range in which the true value of the beta for each security is found. We are 95% confident that the true is found within these values. Notice how both levels of significance tend to stretch towards 1. The stated for DIS was 1. 2, and . 82 for ETE. The HO for both securities is located within this level of significance, which is a good indicator in support of my hypothesis. T-testing The formula for calculating t he t-value of each security is as follows: t = (OA2 HO: 2)/ SE On the basis oft for Walt Disney we see that t = (1. 09786 1. 15)/ . 2036 which equals -2. 5609 which is significant at a = 5% if you compare the t-value. Taking the absolute value of the calculated t-value we can make a comparison The t-value calculated: tal 2 = t. 025 = 1. 962 Again, given the confidence coefficient of 95%, in the long run 95 out of 100 case intervals will contain the true beta of Energy Transfer Equity LLP. F-value When testing the overall significance of the model one can analyze the f-value for each security. The estimated f-values for each security are as follows: F-value ETE = 761. 03 The calculated f-value formula is as follows: (ESS/(k- 1 K is equal to the #of independent variables which is 2. N is the sample size. (2-1)/ (1256-2) 1/ 1254 Using the F table and that data above the calculated f-value on a =5% interval is 3. 84. Since 3. 84 My hypothesis essentially suggested that the betas of each security would tend to mirror the market more closely than their stated beta, testing rejected that theory. My arbitrary guess was that each security would be . 05 closer to 1 than its stated beta. Data suggested that the beta for ETE was actually farther away from 1, the opposite of my hypothesis, and while data for DIS suggested a beta closer to 1, it wasnt statistically significant nough to fail to reject my hypothesis. However analysis on the level of significance for each security suggested that the true beta was indeed closer to 1, again, Just not statistically significant enough. Forecasting and Prediction: Based off of the estimated parameters from hypothesis testing we can suggest that Walt Disney will produce roughly a 10% 20% higher swing in volatility related to the market. With greater systematic risk in this security one can predict higher returns as well. Forecasting the return for DIS based the estimated parameters consists of oughly a 10% 20% higher return than the market. Forecasting for Energy Transfer Equity LP based off of the estimated parameters suggests that returns will be slightly less volatile than reported from MSN Money and Yahoo Finance. With an estimated beta of . 80867, and a stated beta from financial states at . 82, ETE looks to be generating revenues at about 20% less than the market. Both of these predictions are under the assumption that the percentage of risk for each security directly correlated to the percentage of return for that security. Investment Advice: Financially speaking, DIS is going to provide higher returns for a portfolio than ETE, but at a greater risk. In terms of investing, security selection boils down the type of investor, and how risk averse they are. Its important to diversify a portfolio which is why Id definitely suggest including these two securitys together, to avoid taking on unnecessary risk. As I stated in my hypothesis mirroring the market is generally something avoided in investing, however in light of the recent positivity of the market and what many consider a bull market, mirroring the market could actually be a very safe and profitable decision.